Assessing the Northern Territory health workforce against Australian averages using burden of disease and injury 

The Northern Territory health workforce is facing increasing pressure unless the number of health workers is increased to handle the high burden of illness, and to meet the health care requirements of Indigenous people. The widest gaps in health specialties between health needs and health service delivery were observed for nurses (especially remote area nurses), Aboriginal health practitioners or Aboriginal health workers, physiotherapists, psychologists, pharmacists and dentists, beside a long list of other specialists. Compounding the insufficient workforce supply to manage the NT burden of disease and injury is the high turnover of health staff – particularly in the nursing profession.

The poor health outcomes experienced by the Northern Territory population are well documented, with relative higher numbers of health professionals on the per-capita basis working in the Northern Territory. However, when the burden of disease and injury measure rather than population size is used as the benchmark, our analysis showed that the Northern Territory health workforce is, in fact, 22% smaller than needed to match the national health workforce level.

The undersupply with respect to the burden of disease means that the number of healthcare staff treating diseases and injuries is insufficient. Among a total of 38 specialties assessed, 28 specialties were deemed to be below the national average per burden of disease and injury.

We analysed historical administrative data between 2009 and 2021 sourced from the national health workforce database, the Australian Bureau of Statistics population, the Northern Territory and Australian burden of disease databases. We undertook benchmark analysis by both population and burden of disease, along with pressure point analysis to identify inadequacy of the health workforce overall and by medical specialties.

The population density approach (ratio of professions to population) used nationally to inform health workforce planning is not appropriate for the NT and underestimates the staff required. The burden of disease and injury information is useful for health workforce needs assessment and planning, taking into account both demography and epidemiology. The health workforce in the NT is generally insufficient to meet the population health needs and the burden of disease. The national benchmark and future demand ratio assessment can help identify the health workforce bottlenecks and areas of emergent demand. There is an urgent need to develop a Territory-trained health workforce to meet the NT’s context-specific disease burden and healthcare needs.